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Because the rise in LGBT identity is so heavily concentrated on the political left, its influence on the balance of power between the two parties is likely to be limited.Using factor analysis in two different studies shows that assuming one common variable between all three traits explains 40-50 percent of the variation. Among young people, mental health problems, liberal ideology, and LGBT identity are strongly correlated.This relationship appears to have strengthened since 2010. 27 percent of young Americans with anxiety or depression were LGBT in 2021. Very liberal young Americans are twice as likely as others to experience these problems. Very liberal ideology and LGBT identification are associated with anxiety and depression in young people.Other ideological groups are more stable. The most liberal respondents have moved from 10-15 percent non-heterosexual identification in 2016 to 33 percent in 2021. It seems that an underlying psychological disposition is inclining people with heterosexual behavior to identify both as LGBT and very liberal. Very liberal ideology is associated with identifying as LGBT among those with heterosexual behavior, especially women.

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The majority of the increase in LGBT identity can be traced to how those who only engage in heterosexual behavior describe themselves. Of that, around 4 points can be explained by an increase in same-sex behavior.

  • The author provides a high-point estimate of an 11-point increase in LGBT identity between 20 among Americans under 30.
  • Whereas in 2008 attitudes and behavior were similar, by 2021 LGBT identification was running at twice the rate of LGBT sexual behavior. Men and women under 30 who reported a sexual partner in the last five years dropped from around 96 percent exclusively heterosexual in the 1990s to 92 percent exclusively heterosexual in 2021.
  • When we look at homosexual behavior, we find that it has grown much less rapidly than LGBT identification.
  • The most popular LGBT identity is bisexual, which is significantly more common among women than men.
  • The UK’s Office for National Statistics finds that 7.6 percent of those 16-24 identify as LGBT, which can be taken as a low-end estimate for that country. Nonetheless, these government sources indicate that the trend is real, even if less reliable surveys might exaggerate it. This caveat must be kept in mind in understanding this report.

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    Government data from Canada and the UK indicate that surveys might be overestimating the extent of the rise in LGBT identity.Today, among those under 30, a wide range of surveys converge on a number of around 20 percent. The last decade has seen a precipitous rise in the share of Americans identifying as LGBT, particularly among the youngest adults._ Eric Kaufmann, professor of politics, Birkbeck College, University of London Research Fellow, Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology (CSPI).









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